Purpose This study estimated the long-term individual-level productivity costs of physical inactivity.

Methods The data were drawn from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966, to which the productivity cost variables (sick leaves and disability pensions) from Finnish registries were linked. Individuals (N = 6,261) were categorized into physical activity groups based on their level of physical activity, which was measured in three ways: 1) self-reported leisure-time moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) at age 46, 2) longitudinal self-reported leisure-time MVPA at ages 31–46, and 3) accelerometer-measured overall MVPA at age 46. The human capital approach was applied to calculate the observed costs (years 2012–2020) and the expected costs (years 2012–2031).

Results The results showed that the average individual-level productivity costs were higher among physically inactive compared with the costs among physically active. The results were consistent regardless of the measurement type of physical activity or the period used. On average, the observed long-term productivity costs among physically inactive individual were €1,900 higher based on self-reported MVPA, €1,800 higher based on longitudinal MVPA, and €4,300 higher based on accelerometer-measured MVPA compared with the corresponding productivity costs among physically active individuals. The corresponding difference in the expected costs were €2,800, €1,200, and €8,700, respectively.

Conclusions The results provide evidence that productivity costs differ according to an individual’s level of physical activity. Therefore, investments in physical activity may decrease not only the direct healthcare costs but also the indirect productivity costs paid by the employee, the employer, and the government.