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Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development.
Abstract Immunoglobulin G (IgG) is a major effector molecule of the human immune response, and aberrations in IgG glycosylation are linked to various diseases. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying protein glycosylation are still poorly understood. We present a data-driven approach to infer reactions in the IgG glycosylation pathway using large-scale mass-spectrometry measurements. Gaussian graphical models are used to construct association networks from four cohorts. We find that glycan pairs with high partial correlations represent enzymatic reactions in the known glycosylation pathway, and then predict new biochemical reactions using a rule-based approach. Validation is performed using data from a GWAS and results from three in vitro experiments. We show that one predicted reaction is enzymatically feasible and that one rejected reaction does not occur in vitro. Moreover, in contrast to previous knowledge, enzymes involved in our predictions colocalize in the Golgi of two cell lines, further confirming the in silico predictions.
Background: Lung function is highly heritable and differs between the sexes throughout life. However, little is known about sex-differential genetic effects on lung function. We aimed to conduct the first genome-wide genotype-by-sex interaction study on lung function to identify genetic effects that differ between males and females. Methods: We tested for interactions between 7,745,864 variants and sex on spirometry-based measures of lung function in UK Biobank (N=303,612), and sought replication in 75,696 independent individuals from the SpiroMeta consortium. Results: Five independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed genome-wide significant (P<5x10 -8) interactions with sex on lung function, and 21 showed suggestive interactions (P<1x10 -6). The strongest signal, from rs7697189 (chr4:145436894) on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1) (P=3.15x10 -15), was replicated (P=0.016) in SpiroMeta. The C allele increased FEV 1 more in males (untransformed FEV 1 β=0.028 [SE 0.0022] litres) than females (β=0.009 [SE 0.0014] litres), and this effect was not accounted for by differential effects on height, smoking or pubertal age. rs7697189 resides upstream of the hedgehog-interacting protein ( HHIP) gene and was previously associated with lung function and HHIP lung expression. We found HHIP expression was significantly different between the sexes (P=6.90x10 -6), but we could not detect sex differential effects of rs7697189 on expression. Conclusions: We identified a novel genotype-by-sex interaction at a putative enhancer region upstream of the HHIP gene. Establishing the mechanism by which HHIP SNPs have different effects on lung function in males and females will be important for our understanding of lung health and diseases in both sexes.
Genome-wide association analyses using high-throughput metabolomics platforms have led to novel insights into the biology of human metabolism1–7. This detailed knowledge of the genetic determinants of systemic metabolism has been pivotal for uncovering how genetic pathways influence biological mechanisms and complex diseases8–11. Here we present a genome-wide association study for 233 circulating metabolic traits quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in up to 136,016 participants from 33 cohorts. We identify more than 400 independent loci and assign probable causal genes at two-thirds of these using manual curation of plausible biological candidates. We highlight the importance of sample and participant characteristics that can have significant effects on genetic associations. We use detailed metabolic profiling of lipoprotein- and lipid-associated variants to better characterize how known lipid loci and novel loci affect lipoprotein metabolism at a granular level. We demonstrate the translational utility of comprehensively phenotyped molecular data, characterizing the metabolic associations of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy. Finally, we observe substantial genetic pleiotropy for multiple metabolic pathways and illustrate the importance of careful instrument selection in Mendelian randomization analysis, revealing a putative causal relationship between acetone and hypertension. Our publicly available results provide a foundational resource for the community to examine the role of metabolism across diverse diseases.
Background: Over 90 regions of the genome have been associated with lung function to date, many of which have also been implicated in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Methods: We carried out meta-analyses of exome array data and three lung function measures: forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and the ratio of FEV1 to FVC (FEV1/FVC). These analyses by the SpiroMeta and CHARGE consortia included 60,749 individuals of European ancestry from 23 studies, and 7,721 individuals of African Ancestry from 5 studies in the discovery stage, with follow-up in up to 111,556 independent individuals. Results: We identified significant (P<2·8x10-7) associations with six SNPs: a nonsynonymous variant in RPAP1, which is predicted to be damaging, three intronic SNPs (SEC24C, CASC17 and UQCC1) and two intergenic SNPs near to LY86 and FGF10. Expression quantitative trait loci analyses found evidence for regulation of gene expression at three signals and implicated several genes, including TYRO3 and PLAU. Conclusions: Further interrogation of these loci could provide greater understanding of the determinants of lung function and pulmonary disease.
Refractive error, measured here as mean spherical equivalent (SER), is a complex eye condition caused by both genetic and environmental factors. Individuals with strong positive or negative values of SER require spectacles or other approaches for vision correction. Common genetic risk factors have been identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but a great part of the refractive error heritability is still missing. Some of this heritability may be explained by rare variants (minor allele frequency [MAF] ≤ 0.01.). We performed multiple gene-based association tests of mean Spherical Equivalent with rare variants in exome array data from the Consortium for Refractive Error and Myopia (CREAM). The dataset consisted of over 27,000 total subjects from five cohorts of Indo-European and Eastern Asian ethnicity. We identified 129 unique genes associated with refractive error, many of which were replicated in multiple cohorts. Our best novel candidates included the retina expressed PDCD6IP, the circadian rhythm gene PER3, and P4HTM, which affects eye morphology. Future work will include functional studies and validation. Identification of genes contributing to refractive error and future understanding of their function may lead to better treatment and prevention of refractive errors, which themselves are important risk factors for various blinding conditions.
Refractive errors, including myopia, are the most frequent eye disorders worldwide and an increasingly common cause of blindness. This genome-wide association meta-analysis in 160,420 participants and replication in 95,505 participants increased the number of established independent signals from 37 to 161 and showed high genetic correlation between Europeans and Asians (>0.78). Expression experiments and comprehensive in silico analyses identified retinal cell physiology and light processing as prominent mechanisms, and also identified functional contributions to refractive-error development in all cell types of the neurosensory retina, retinal pigment epithelium, vascular endothelium and extracellular matrix. Newly identified genes implicate novel mechanisms such as rod-and-cone bipolar synaptic neurotransmission, anterior-segment morphology and angiogenesis. Thirty-one loci resided in or near regions transcribing small RNAs, thus suggesting a role for post-transcriptional regulation. Our results support the notion that refractive errors are caused by a light-dependent retina-to-sclera signaling cascade and delineate potential pathobiological molecular drivers.
Abstract Background: Smoking is the strongest environmental risk factor for reduced pulmonary function. The genetic component of various pulmonary traits has also been demonstrated, and at least 26 loci have been reproducibly associated with either FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1 second) or FEV1/FVC (FEV1/forced vital capacity). Although the main effects of smoking and genetic loci are well established, the question of potential gene-by-smoking interaction effect remains unanswered. The aim of the present study was to assess, using a genetic risk score approach, whether the effect of these 26 loci on pulmonary function is influenced by smoking. Methods: We evaluated the interaction between smoking exposure, considered as either ever vs never or pack-years, and a 26-single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genetic risk score in relation to FEV1 or FEV1/FVC in 50 047 participants of European ancestry from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) and SpiroMeta consortia. Results: We identified an interaction (βint = −0.036, 95% confidence interval, −0.040 to −0.032, P = 0.00057) between an unweighted 26 SNP genetic risk score and smoking status (ever/never) on the FEV1/FVC ratio. In interpreting this interaction, we showed that the genetic risk of falling below the FEV1/FVC threshold used to diagnose chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is higher among ever smokers than among never smokers. A replication analysis in two independent datasets, although not statistically significant, showed a similar trend in the interaction effect. Conclusions: This study highlights the benefit of using genetic risk scores for identifying interactions missed when studying individual SNPs and shows, for the first time, that persons with the highest genetic risk for low FEV1/FVC may be more susceptible to the deleterious effects of smoking.
Lung-function impairment underlies chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and predicts mortality. In the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of lung function to date, comprising 580,869 participants, we identified 1,020 independent association signals implicating 559 genes supported by ≥2 criteria from a systematic variant-to-gene mapping framework. These genes were enriched in 29 pathways. Individual variants showed heterogeneity across ancestries, age and smoking groups, and collectively as a genetic risk score showed strong association with COPD across ancestry groups. We undertook phenome-wide association studies for selected associated variants as well as trait and pathway-specific genetic risk scores to infer possible consequences of intervening in pathways underlying lung function. We highlight new putative causal variants, genes, proteins and pathways, including those targeted by existing drugs. These findings bring us closer to understanding the mechanisms underlying lung function and COPD, and should inform functional genomics experiments and potentially future COPD therapies.
Lung-function impairment underlies chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and predicts mortality. In the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of lung function to date, comprising 580,869 participants, we identified 1,020 independent association signals implicating 559 genes supported by ≥2 criteria from a systematic variant-to-gene mapping framework. These genes were enriched in 29 pathways. Individual variants showed heterogeneity across ancestries, age and smoking groups, and collectively as a genetic risk score showed strong association with COPD across ancestry groups. We undertook phenome-wide association studies for selected associated variants as well as trait and pathway-specific genetic risk scores to infer possible consequences of intervening in pathways underlying lung function. We highlight new putative causal variants, genes, proteins and pathways, including those targeted by existing drugs. These findings bring us closer to understanding the mechanisms underlying lung function and COPD, and should inform functional genomics experiments and potentially future COPD therapies.
Corneal curvature, a highly heritable trait, is a key clinical endophenotype for myopia - a major cause of visual impairment and blindness in the world. Here we present a trans-ethnic meta-analysis of corneal curvature GWAS in 44,042 individuals of Caucasian and Asian with replication in 88,218 UK Biobank data. We identified 47 loci (of which 26 are novel), with population-specific signals as well as shared signals across ethnicities. Some identified variants showed precise scaling in corneal curvature and eye elongation (i.e. axial length) to maintain eyes in emmetropia (i.e. HDAC11/FBLN2 rs2630445, RBP3 rs11204213); others exhibited association with myopia with little pleiotropic effects on eye elongation. Implicated genes are involved in extracellular matrix organization, developmental process for body and eye, connective tissue cartilage and glycosylation protein activities. Our study provides insights into population-specific novel genes for corneal curvature, and their pleiotropic effect in regulating eye size or conferring susceptibility to myopia.
Introduction: Educational attainment, widely used in epidemiologic studies as a surrogate for socioeconomic status, is a predictor of cardiovascular health outcomes. Methods: A two-stage genome-wide meta-analysis of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglyceride (TG) levels was performed while accounting for gene-educational attainment interactions in up to 226,315 individuals from five population groups. We considered two educational attainment variables: “Some College” (yes/no, for any education beyond high school) and “Graduated College” (yes/no, for completing a 4-year college degree). Genome-wide significant (p < 5 × 10−8) and suggestive (p < 1 × 10−6) variants were identified in Stage 1 (in up to 108,784 individuals) through genome-wide analysis, and those variants were followed up in Stage 2 studies (in up to 117,531 individuals). Results: In combined analysis of Stages 1 and 2, we identified 18 novel lipid loci (nine for LDL, seven for HDL, and two for TG) by two degree-of-freedom (2 DF) joint tests of main and interaction effects. Four loci showed significant interaction with educational attainment. Two loci were significant only in cross-population analyses. Several loci include genes with known or suggested roles in adipose (FOXP1, MBOAT4, SKP2, STIM1, STX4), brain (BRI3, FILIP1, FOXP1, LINC00290, LMTK2, MBOAT4, MYO6, SENP6, SRGAP3, STIM1, TMEM167A, TMEM30A), and liver (BRI3, FOXP1) biology, highlighting the potential importance of brain-adipose-liver communication in the regulation of lipid metabolism. An investigation of the potential druggability of genes in identified loci resulted in five gene targets shown to interact with drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration, including genes with roles in adipose and brain tissue. Discussion: Genome-wide interaction analysis of educational attainment identified novel lipid loci not previously detected by analyses limited to main genetic effects.
Abstract Reduced lung function predicts mortality and is key to the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In a genome-wide association study in 400,102 individuals of European ancestry, we define 279 lung function signals, 139 of which are new. In combination, these variants strongly predict COPD in independent populations. Furthermore, the combined effect of these variants showed generalizability across smokers and never smokers, and across ancestral groups. We highlight biological pathways, known and potential drug targets for COPD and, in phenome-wide association studies, autoimmune-related and other pleiotropic effects of lung function–associated variants. This new genetic evidence has potential to improve future preventive and therapeutic strategies for COPD.
Abstract Differences between sexes contribute to variation in the levels of fasting glucose and insulin. Epidemiological studies established a higher prevalence of impaired fasting glucose in men and impaired glucose tolerance in women, however, the genetic component underlying this phenomenon is not established. We assess sex-dimorphic (73,089/50,404 women and 67,506/47,806 men) and sex-combined (151,188/105,056 individuals) fasting glucose/fasting insulin genetic effects via genome-wide association study meta-analyses in individuals of European descent without diabetes. Here we report sex dimorphism in allelic effects on fasting insulin at IRS1 and ZNF12 loci, the latter showing higher RNA expression in whole blood in women compared to men. We also observe sex-homogeneous effects on fasting glucose at seven novel loci. Fasting insulin in women shows stronger genetic correlations than in men with waist-to-hip ratio and anorexia nervosa. Furthermore, waist-to-hip ratio is causally related to insulin resistance in women, but not in men. These results position dissection of metabolic and glycemic health sex dimorphism as a steppingstone for understanding differences in genetic effects between women and men in related phenotypes.
Abstract Large consortia have revealed hundreds of genetic loci associated with anthropometric traits, one trait at a time. We examined whether genetic variants affect body shape as a composite phenotype that is represented by a combination of anthropometric traits. We developed an approach that calculates averaged PCs (AvPCs) representing body shape derived from six anthropometric traits (body mass index, height, weight, waist and hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio). The first four AvPCs explain >99% of the variability, are heritable, and associate with cardiometabolic outcomes. We performed genome-wide association analyses for each body shape composite phenotype across 65 studies and meta-analysed summary statistics. We identify six novel loci: LEMD2 and CD47 for AvPC1, RPS6KA5/C14orf159 and GANAB for AvPC3, and ARL15 and ANP32 for AvPC4. Our findings highlight the value of using multiple traits to define complex phenotypes for discovery, which are not captured by single-trait analyses, and may shed light onto new pathways.
BACKGROUND: Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery. RESULTS: To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N = 1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3-5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk.
Abstract Genetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to similar to 1.3 million participants, we discovered 106 new BP-associated genomic regions and 87 rare (minor allele frequency ≤ 0.01) variant BP associations (P < 5 x 10(−8)), of which 32 were in new BP-associated loci and 55 were independent BP-associated single-nucleotide variants within known BP-associated regions. Average effects of rare variants (44% coding) were similar to 8 times larger than common variant effects and indicate potential candidate causal genes at new and known loci (for example, GATA5 and PLCB3). BP-associated variants (including rare and common) were enriched in regions of active chromatin in fetal tissues, potentially linking fetal development with BP regulation in later life. Multivariable Mendelian randomization suggested possible inverse effects of elevated systolic and diastolic BP on large artery stroke. Our study demonstrates the utility of rare-variant analyses for identifying candidate genes and the results highlight potential therapeutic targets.
Abstract Physical activity (PA) may modify the genetic effects that give rise to increased risk of obesity. To identify adiposity loci whose effects are modified by PA, we performed genome-wide interaction meta-analyses of BMI and BMI-adjusted waist circumference and waist-hip ratio from up to 200,452 adults of European (n = 180,423) or other ancestry (n = 20,029). We standardized PA by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable where, on average, 23% of participants were categorized as inactive and 77% as physically active. While we replicate the interaction with PA for the strongest known obesity-risk locus in the FTO gene, of which the effect is attenuated by ~30% in physically active individuals compared to inactive individuals, we do not identify additional loci that are sensitive to PA. In additional genome-wide meta-analyses adjusting for PA and interaction with PA, we identify 11 novel adiposity loci, suggesting that accounting for PA or other environmental factors that contribute to variation in adiposity may facilitate gene discovery.
Abstract Few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) account for environmental exposures, like smoking, potentially impacting the overall trait variance when investigating the genetic contribution to obesity-related traits. Here, we use GWAS data from 51,080 current smokers and 190,178 nonsmokers (87% European descent) to identify loci influencing BMI and central adiposity, measured as waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio both adjusted for BMI. We identify 23 novel genetic loci, and 9 loci with convincing evidence of gene-smoking interaction (GxSMK) on obesity-related traits. We show consistent direction of effect for all identified loci and significance for 18 novel and for 5 interaction loci in an independent study sample. These loci highlight novel biological functions, including response to oxidative stress, addictive behaviour, and regulatory functions emphasizing the importance of accounting for environment in genetic analyses. Our results suggest that tobacco smoking may alter the genetic susceptibility to overall adiposity and body fat distribution.
Abstract Glycemic traits are used to diagnose and monitor type 2 diabetes and cardiometabolic health. To date, most genetic studies of glycemic traits have focused on individuals of European ancestry. Here we aggregated genome-wide association studies comprising up to 281,416 individuals without diabetes (30% non-European ancestry) for whom fasting glucose, 2-h glucose after an oral glucose challenge, glycated hemoglobin and fasting insulin data were available. Trans-ancestry and single-ancestry meta-analyses identified 242 loci (99 novel; P < 5 x 10-8), 80% of which had no significant evidence of between-ancestry heterogeneity. Analyses restricted to individuals of European ancestry with equivalent sample size would have led to 24 fewer new loci. Compared with single-ancestry analyses, equivalent-sized trans-ancestry fine-mapping reduced the number of estimated variants in 99% credible sets by a median of 37.5%. Genomic-feature, gene-expression and gene-set analyses revealed distinct biological signatures for each trait, highlighting different underlying biological pathways. Our results increase our understanding of diabetes pathophysiology by using trans-ancestry studies for improved power and resolution.
Abstract In many species, the offspring of related parents suffer reduced reproductive success, a phenomenon known as inbreeding depression. In humans, the importance of this effect has remained unclear, partly because reproduction between close relatives is both rare and frequently associated with confounding social factors. Here, using genomic inbreeding coefficients (FROH) for >1.4 million individuals, we show that FROH is significantly associated (p < 0.0005) with apparently deleterious changes in 32 out of 100 traits analysed. These changes are associated with runs of homozygosity (ROH), but not with common variant homozygosity, suggesting that genetic variants associated with inbreeding depression are predominantly rare. The effect on fertility is striking: FROH equivalent to the offspring of first cousins is associated with a 55% decrease [95% CI 44–66%] in the odds of having children. Finally, the effects of FROH are confirmed within full-sibling pairs, where the variation in FROH is independent of all environmental confounding.
Abstract Increased blood lipid levels are heritable risk factors of cardiovascular disease with varied prevalence worldwide owing to different dietary patterns and medication use1. Despite advances in prevention and treatment, in particular through reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels2, heart disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide3. Genome-wideassociation studies (GWAS) of blood lipid levels have led to important biological and clinical insights, as well as new drug targets, for cardiovascular disease. However, most previous GWAS4‐23 have been conducted in European ancestry populations and may have missed genetic variants that contribute to lipid-level variation in other ancestry groups. These include differences in allele frequencies, effect sizes and linkage-disequilibrium patterns24. Here we conduct a multi-ancestry, genome-wide genetic discovery meta-analysis of lipid levels in approximately 1.65 million individuals, including 350,000 of non-European ancestries. We quantify the gain in studying non-European ancestries and provide evidence to support the expansion of recruitment of additional ancestries, even with relatively small sample sizes. We find that increasing diversity rather than studying additional individuals of European ancestry results in substantial improvements in fine-mapping functional variants and portability of polygenic prediction (evaluated in approximately 295,000 individuals from 7 ancestry groupings). Modest gains in the number of discovered loci and ancestry-specific variants were also achieved. As GWAS expand emphasis beyond the identification of genes and fundamental biology towards the use of genetic variants for preventive and precision medicine25, we anticipate that increased diversity of participants will lead to more accurate and equitable26 application of polygenic scores in clinical practice.
Abstract Background: Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods: For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings: We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19.1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127.0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125.7–128.3) in men and 122.3 mm Hg (121.0–123.6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78.7 mm Hg (77.9–79.5) for men and 76.7 mm Hg (75.9–77.6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24.1% (21.4–27.1) in men and 20.1% (17.8–22.5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1.13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation: During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.