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Executive Summary By 2030, our societies will become digitalized and data-driven, enabled through the key verticals like connected industries, intelligent transport systems and smart cities. Machine Type Communication (MTC) encompassing its massive and critical aspects, and near instant unlimited wireless connectivity are among the main enablers of such digitalization at large. The recently introduced 5G New Radio is natively designed to support both aspects of MTC to promote the digital transformation of the society and particularly improve the overall efficiency of different vertical sectors. However, it is evident that some of the more demanding requirements of MTC cannot be fully supported by 5G networks. Alongside, further development of the society towards 2030 will give rise to new and more stringent requirements on wireless connectivity in general, and MTC in particular. Driven by the societal trends towards 2030, the next generation (6G) will be an agile and efficient convergent network serving a set of diverse service classes and a wide range of key performance indicators (KPI). This white paper explores the main drivers and requirements of an MTC-optimized 6G network, and presents a set of research directions for different aspects of MTC that can be synthesized through the following six key research questions: <ul> Will the main KPIs of 5G, namely reliability-latencyscalability, continue to be the dominant KPIs in 6G; or will emerging metrics such as energy-efficiency, end-to-end (E2E) performance measures and sensing become more important? How can different E2E service mandates with different KPI requirements be delivered through a multidisciplinary approach jointly considering optimization at the physical up to the application layer? What are the key enablers towards designing ultralow power receivers and highly efficient sleep modes to support ultra-low-cost ultra-low-power or even passive MTC devices? How can a disruptive rather than incremental joint design of a massively scalable waveform and medium access policy be tackled to efficiently support global connectivity for MTC? How can new service classes characterizing missioncritical and dependable MTC in 6G be supported through multifaceted connectivity and non-cellular centric wireless solutions? What are the potential enablers of long-term secure schemes considering the heterogeneous requirements and capabilities of MTC devices? How can lightweight and flexible usable ways of handling privacy and trust be designed in MTC by combining the user perspective with the technical perspective?
Abstract Low Earth orbit satellites frequently encounter Pc1 pulsations, but most have been observed with limited latitudinal extent or short lifetime. In this study we analyze two large‐scale Pc1 pulsations (both latitudinally wide and long‐lasting) generated by ionospheric ducting effect using Swarm and ground magnetometers on 25 June and 3 September 2015. Swarm observed the 25 June pulsations on both dayside and nightside during the storm time substorm (a strong geomagnetic storm on 23 June with \(D_{st} = − 204~nT\)). We found the Pc1 pulsations were pervasive in both magnetic local time sectors of dayside and nightside for at least 2 hr. Another large Pc1 pulsation on 3 September was observed during a nonstorm substorm period. We conclude that (1) ionospheric ducting can transmit Pc1 waves to a wide range of L shells, (2) geomagnetic storm is not a prerequisite for such large‐scale ducting, and (3) wave intensity can abruptly decrease across sharp gradients in the ionospheric plasma density.
Abstract Transpolar arcs (TPAs) are believed to predominantly occur under northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions with their hemispheric asymmetry controlled by the Sun-Earth (radial) component of the IMF. In this study, we present observations of TPAs that appear in both the northern and southern hemispheres even during a prolonged interval of radially oriented IMF. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellites observed TPAs on the dawnside polar cap in both hemispheres (one TPA structure in the southern hemisphere and two in the northern hemisphere) during an interval of nearly earthward-oriented IMF on October 29, 2005. The southern hemisphere TPA and one of the northern hemisphere TPAs are associated with electron and ion precipitation and mostly sunward plasma flow (with shears) relative to their surroundings. Meanwhile, the other TPA in the northern hemisphere is associated with an electron-only precipitation and antisunward flow relative to its surroundings. Our observations indicate the following: (a) the TPA formation is not limited to northward IMF conditions; (b) the TPAs can be located on both closed field lines rooted in the polar cap of both hemispheres and open field lines connected to the northward field lines draped over one hemisphere of the magnetopause. We believe that the TPAs presented here are the result of both indirect and direct processes of solar wind energy transfer to the high-latitude ionosphere.
Previous studies have evaluated how changes in atmospheric nitrogen (N) inputs and climate affect stream N concentrations and fluxes, but none have synthesized data from sites around the globe. We identified variables controlling stream inorganic N concentrations and fluxes, and how they have changed, by synthesizing 20 time series ranging from 5 to 51 years of data collected from forest and grassland dominated watersheds across Europe, North America, and East Asia and across four climate types (tropical, temperate, Mediterranean, and boreal) using the International Long-Term Ecological Research Network. We hypothesized that sites with greater atmospheric N deposition have greater stream N export rates, but that climate has taken a stronger role as atmospheric deposition declines in many regions of the globe. We found declining trends in bulk ammonium and nitrate deposition, especially in the longest time-series, with ammonium contributing relatively more to atmospheric N deposition over time. Among sites, there were statistically significant positive relationships between (1) annual rates of precipitation and stream ammonium and nitrate fluxes and (2) annual rates of atmospheric N inputs and stream nitrate concentrations and fluxes. There were no significant relationships between air temperature and stream N export. Our long-term data shows that although N deposition is declining over time, atmospheric N inputs and precipitation remain important predictors for inorganic N exported from forested and grassland watersheds. Overall, we also demonstrate that long-term monitoring provides understanding of ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling that would not be possible with short-term studies alone.
Abstract The recently introduced 5G New Radio is the first wireless standard natively designed to support critical and massive machine type communications (MTC). However, it is already becoming evident that some of the more demanding requirements for MTC cannot be fully supported by 5G networks. Alongside, emerging use cases and applications towards 2030 will give rise to new and more stringent requirements on wireless connectivity in general and MTC in particular. Next generation wireless networks, namely 6G, should therefore be an agile and efficient convergent network designed to meet the diverse and challenging requirements anticipated by 2030. This paper explores the main drivers and requirements of MTC towards 6G, and discusses a wide variety of enabling technologies. More specifically, we first explore the emerging key performance indicators for MTC in 6G. Thereafter, we present a vision for an MTC-optimized holistic end-to-end network architecture. Finally, key enablers towards (1) ultra-low power MTC, (2) massively scalable global connectivity, (3) critical and dependable MTC, and (4) security and privacy preserving schemes for MTC are detailed. Our main objective is to present a set of research directions considering different aspects for an MTC-optimized 6G network in the 2030-era.
Background: In the PAOLA-1/ENGOT-ov25 primary analysis, maintenance olaparib plus bevacizumab demonstrated a significant progression-free survival (PFS) benefit in newly diagnosed advanced ovarian cancer patients in clinical response after first-line platinum-based chemotherapy plus bevacizumab, irrespective of surgical status. Prespecified, exploratory analyses by molecular biomarker status showed substantial benefit in patients with a BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation (BRCAm) or homologous recombination deficiency (HRD; BRCAm and/or genomic instability). We report the prespecified final overall survival (OS) analysis, including analyses by HRD status. Patients and methods: Patients were randomized 2 : 1 to olaparib (300 mg twice daily; up to 24 months) plus bevacizumab (15 mg/kg every 3 weeks; 15 months total) or placebo plus bevacizumab. Analysis of OS, a key secondary endpoint in hierarchical testing, was planned for ∼60% maturity or 3 years after the primary analysis. Results: After median follow-up of 61.7 and 61.9 months in the olaparib and placebo arms, respectively, median OS was 56.5 versus 51.6 months in the intention-to-treat population [hazard ratio (HR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-1.12; P = 0.4118]. Subsequent poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor therapy was received by 105 (19.6%) olaparib patients versus 123 (45.7%) placebo patients. In the HRD-positive population, OS was longer with olaparib plus bevacizumab (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.85; 5-year OS rate, 65.5% versus 48.4%); at 5 years, updated PFS also showed a higher proportion of olaparib plus bevacizumab patients without relapse (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.32-0.54; 5-year PFS rate, 46.1% versus 19.2%). Myelodysplastic syndrome, acute myeloid leukemia, aplastic anemia, and new primary malignancy incidence remained low and balanced between arms. Conclusions: Olaparib plus bevacizumab provided clinically meaningful OS improvement for first-line patients with HRD-positive ovarian cancer. These prespecified exploratory analyses demonstrated improvement despite a high proportion of patients in the placebo arm receiving poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors after progression, confirming the combination as one of the standards of care in this setting with the potential to enhance cure.
Abstract Background: Herbivores modify the structure and function of tundra ecosystems. Understanding their impacts is necessary to assess the responses of these ecosystems to ongoing environmental changes. However, the effects of herbivores on plants and ecosystem structure and function vary across the Arctic. Strong spatial variation in herbivore effects implies that the results of individual studies on herbivory depend on local conditions, i.e., their ecological context. An important first step in assessing whether generalizable conclusions can be produced is to identify the existing studies and assess how well they cover the underlying environmental conditions across the Arctic. This systematic map aims to identify the ecological contexts in which herbivore impacts on vegetation have been studied in the Arctic. Specifically, the primary question of the systematic map was: ”What evidence exists on the effects of herbivores on Arctic vegetation?”. Methods: We used a published systematic map protocol to identify studies addressing the effects of herbivores on Arctic vegetation. We conducted searches for relevant literature in online databases, search engines and specialist websites. Literature was screened to identify eligible studies, defined as reporting primary data on herbivore impacts on Arctic plants and plant communities. We extracted information on variables that describe the ecological context of the studies, from the studies themselves and from geospatial data. We synthesized the findings narratively and created a Shiny App where the coded data are searchable and variables can be visually explored. Review findings We identified 309 relevant articles with 662 studies (representing different ecological contexts or datasets within the same article). These studies addressed vertebrate herbivory seven times more often than invertebrate herbivory. Geographically, the largest cluster of studies was in Northern Fennoscandia. Warmer and wetter parts of the Arctic had the largest representation, as did coastal areas and areas where the increase in temperature has been moderate. In contrast, studies spanned the full range of ecological context variables describing Arctic vertebrate herbivore diversity and human population density and impact. Conclusions: The current evidence base might not be sufficient to understand the effects of herbivores on Arctic vegetation throughout the region, as we identified clear biases in the distribution of herbivore studies in the Arctic and a limited evidence base on invertebrate herbivory. In particular, the overrepresentation of studies in areas with moderate increases in temperature prevents robust generalizations about the effects of herbivores under different climatic scenarios.
Abstract Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with increased risk of pregnancy complications and adverse perinatal outcomes. GDM often reoccurs and is associated with increased risk of subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2D). To improve our understanding of the aetiological factors and molecular processes driving the occurrence of GDM, including the extent to which these overlap with T2D pathophysiology, the GENetics of Diabetes In Pregnancy Consortium assembled genome-wide association studies of diverse ancestry in a total of 5485 women with GDM and 347 856 without GDM. Through multi-ancestry meta-analysis, we identified five loci with genome-wide significant association (P < 5 x 10-8) with GDM, mapping to/near MTNR1B (P = 4.3 x 10-54), TCF7L2 (P = 4.0 x 10-16), CDKAL1 (P = 1.6 x 10-14), CDKN2A-CDKN2B (P = 4.1 x 10-9) and HKDC1 (P = 2.9 x 10-8). Multiple lines of evidence pointed to the shared pathophysiology of GDM and T2D: (i) four of the five GDM loci (not HKDC1) have been previously reported at genome-wide significance for T2D; (ii) significant enrichment for associations with GDM at previously reported T2D loci; (iii) strong genetic correlation between GDM and T2D and (iv) enrichment of GDM associations mapping to genomic annotations in diabetes-relevant tissues and transcription factor binding sites. Mendelian randomization analyses demonstrated significant causal association (5% false discovery rate) of higher body mass index on increased GDM risk. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that GDM and T2D are part of the same underlying pathology but that, as exemplified by the HKDC1 locus, there are genetic determinants of GDM that are specific to glucose regulation in pregnancy.
Abstract Background: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. Methods: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985–2015) and future (2020–99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. Findings: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by −0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2–7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4–10·3% in 2090–99. Interpretation: This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health.
Combined with measurements made by very-long-baseline interferometry, the observations of fast TeV gamma-ray flares probe the structure and emission mechanism of blazar jets. However, only a handful of such flares have been detected to date, and only within the last few years have these flares been observed from lower-frequency-peaked BL Lac objects and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We report on a fast TeV gamma-ray flare from the blazar BL Lacertae observed by the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS). with a rise time of ∼2.3 hr and a decay time of ∼36 min. The peak flux above 200 GeV is (4.2 ± 0.6) ×10-6 photon m-2 s-1 measured with a 4-minute-binned light curve, corresponding to ∼180% of the flux that is observed from the Crab Nebula above the same energy threshold. Variability contemporaneous with the TeV gamma-ray flare was observed in GeV gamma-ray, X-ray, and optical flux, as well as in optical and radio polarization. Additionally, a possible moving emission feature with superluminal apparent velocity was identified in Very Long Baseline Array observations at 43 GHz, potentially passing the radio core of the jet around the time of the gamma-ray flare. We discuss the constraints on the size, Lorentz factor, and location of the emitting region of the flare, and the interpretations with several theoretical models that invoke relativistic plasma passing stationary shocks.
Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover observations of the 2018/Mars year 34 global/planet-encircling dust storm represent the first in situ measurements of a global dust storm with dedicated meteorological sensors since the Viking Landers. The Mars Science Laboratory team planned and executed a science campaign lasting approximately 100 Martian sols to study the storm involving an enhanced cadence of environmental monitoring using the rover's meteorological sensors, cameras, and spectrometers. Mast Camera 880-nm optical depth reached 8.5, and Rover Environmental Monitoring Station measurements indicated a 97% reduction in incident total ultraviolet solar radiation at the surface, 30K reduction in diurnal range of air temperature, and an increase in the semidiurnal pressure tide amplitude to 40 Pa. No active dust-lifting sites were detected within Gale Crater, and global and local atmospheric dynamics were drastically altered during the storm. This work presents an overview of the mission's storm observations and initial results.
Abstract In this study we aim to examine gene–environment interactions (GxEs) between genes involved with estrogen metabolism and environmental factors related to estrogen exposure. GxE analyses were conducted with 1970 Korean breast cancer cases and 2052 controls in the case-control study, the Seoul Breast Cancer Study (SEBCS). A total of 11,555 SNPs from the 137 candidate genes were included in the GxE analyses with eight established environmental factors. A replication test was conducted by using an independent population from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), with 62,485 Europeans and 9047 Asians. The GxE tests were performed by using two-step methods in GxEScan software. Two interactions were found in the SEBCS. The first interaction was shown between rs13035764 of NCOA1 and age at menarche in the GE|2df model (p-2df = 1.2 × 10−3). The age at menarche before 14 years old was associated with the high risk of breast cancer, and the risk was higher when subjects had homozygous minor allele G. The second GxE was shown between rs851998 near ESR1 and height in the GE|2df model (p-2df = 1.1 × 10−4). Height taller than 160 cm was associated with a high risk of breast cancer, and the risk increased when the minor allele was added. The findings were not replicated in the BCAC. These results would suggest specificity in Koreans for breast cancer risk.
The optimized superconducting stellarator device Wendelstein 7-X (with major radius R = 5.5 m, minor radius a = 0.5 m, and 30 m(3) plasma volume) restarted operation after the assembly of a graphite heat shield and 10 inertially cooled island divertor modules. This paper reports on the results from the first high-performance plasma operation. Glow discharge conditioning and ECRH conditioning discharges in helium turned out to be important for density and edge radiation control. Plasma densities of 1-4.5 x 10(19) m(-3) with central electron temperatures 5-10 keV were routinely achieved with hydrogen gas fueling, frequently terminated by a radiative collapse. In a first stage, plasma densities up to 1.4 x 10(20) m(-3) were reached with hydrogen pellet injection and helium gas fueling. Here, the ions are indirectly heated, and at a central density of 8 . 10(19 )m(-3) a temperature of 3.4 keV with T-e/T-i = 1 was transiently accomplished, which corresponds to nT(i)(0)tau(E) = 6.4 x 10(19) keV s m(-3) with a peak diamagnetic energy of 1.1 MJ and volume-averaged normalized plasma pressure = 1.2%. The routine access to high plasma densities was opened with boronization of the first wall. After boronization, the oxygen impurity content was reduced by a factor of 10, the carbon impurity content by a factor of 5. The reduced (edge) plasma radiation level gives routinely access to higher densities without radiation collapse, e.g. well above 1 x 10(20) m(-2) line integrated density and T-e = T-i = 2 keV central temperatures at moderate ECRH power. Both X2 and O2 mode ECRH schemes were successfully applied. Core turbulence was measured with a phase contrast imaging diagnostic and suppression of turbulence during pellet injection was observed.
Abstract Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time periods, often with only minimal site ancillary data, thus limiting their potential to be used in large-scale carbon budget assessments. To bridge these gaps, we developed a standardized monthly database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes (ABCflux) that aggregates in situ measurements of terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its derived partitioned component fluxes: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. The data span from 1989 to 2020 with over 70 supporting variables that describe key site conditions (e.g., vegetation and disturbance type), micrometeorological and environmental measurements (e.g., air and soil temperatures), and flux measurement techniques. Here, we describe these variables, the spatial and temporal distribution of observations, the main strengths and limitations of the database, and the potential research opportunities it enables. In total, ABCflux includes 244 sites and 6309 monthly observations; 136 sites and 2217 monthly observations represent tundra, and 108 sites and 4092 observations represent the boreal biome. The database includes fluxes estimated with chamber (19 % of the monthly observations), snow diffusion (3 %) and eddy covariance (78 %) techniques. The largest number of observations were collected during the climatological summer (June–August; 32 %), and fewer observations were available for autumn (September–October; 25 %), winter (December–February; 18 %), and spring (March–May; 25 %). ABCflux can be used in a wide array of empirical, remote sensing and modeling studies to improve understanding of the regional and temporal variability in CO2 fluxes and to better estimate the terrestrial ABZ CO2 budget.
Abstract MAXIJ1820+070 is a low-mass X-ray binary with a black hole (BH) as a compact object. This binary underwent an exceptionally bright X-ray outburst from 2018 March to October, showing evidence of a non-thermal particle population through its radio emission during this whole period. The combined results of 59.5 h of observations of the MAXI J1820+070 outburst with the H.E.S.S., MAGIC and VERITAS experiments at energies above 200 GeV are presented, together with Fermi-LAT data between 0.1 and 500 GeV, and multiwavelength observations from radio to X-rays. Gamma-ray emission is not detected from MAXI J1820+070, but the obtained upper limits and the multiwavelength data allow us to put meaningful constraints on the source properties under reasonable assumptions regarding the non-thermal particle population and the jet synchrotron spectrum. In particular, it is possible to show that, if a high-energy (HE) gamma-ray emitting region is present during the hard state of the source, its predicted flux should be at most a factor of 20 below the obtained Fermi-LAT upper limits, and closer to them for magnetic fields significantly below equipartition. During the state transitions, under the plausible assumption that electrons are accelerated up to similar to 500 GeV, the multiwavelength data and the gamma-ray upper limits lead consistently to the conclusion that a potential HE and very-HE gamma-ray emitting region should be located at a distance from the BH ranging between 1011 and 1013 cm. Similar outbursts from low-mass X-ray binaries might be detectable in the near future with upcoming instruments such as CTA.
Abstract Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.
Abstract Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.
Abstract We report on variability and correlation studies using multiwavelength observations of the blazar Mrk 421 during the month of 2010 February, when an extraordinary flare reaching a level of ~27 Crab Units above 1 TeV was measured in very high energy (VHE) γ-rays with the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS) observatory. This is the highest flux state for Mrk 421 ever observed in VHE γ-rays. Data are analyzed from a coordinated campaign across multiple instruments, including VHE γ-ray (VERITAS, Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov), high-energy γ-ray (Fermi-LAT), X-ray (Swift, Rossi X-ray Timing Experiment, MAXI), optical (including the GASP-WEBT collaboration and polarization data), and radio (Metsähovi, Owens Valley Radio Observatory, University of Michigan Radio Astronomy Observatory). Light curves are produced spanning multiple days before and after the peak of the VHE flare, including over several flare “decline“ epochs. The main flare statistics allow 2 minute time bins to be constructed in both the VHE and optical bands enabling a cross-correlation analysis that shows evidence for an optical lag of ~25–55 minutes, the first time-lagged correlation between these bands reported on such short timescales. Limits on the Doppler factor (δ ≳ 33) and the size of the emission region (δ−1 RB ≲ × 1013 cm) are obtained from the fast variability observed by VERITAS during the main flare. Analysis of 10 minute binned VHE and X-ray data over the decline epochs shows an extraordinary range of behavior in the flux–flux relationship, from linear to quadratic to lack of correlation to anticorrelation. Taken together, these detailed observations of an unprecedented flare seen in Mrk 421 are difficult to explain with the classic single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model.
Abstract Background: Despite a modest association between tobacco smoking and breast cancer risk reported by recent epidemiological studies, it is still equivocal whether smoking is causally related to breast cancer risk. Methods: We applied Mendelian randomisation (MR) to evaluate a potential causal effect of cigarette smoking on breast cancer risk. Both individual-level data as well as summary statistics for 164 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reported in genome-wide association studies of lifetime smoking index (LSI) or cigarette per day (CPD) were used to obtain MR effect estimates. Data from 108,420 invasive breast cancer cases and 87,681 controls were used for the LSI analysis and for the CPD analysis conducted among ever-smokers from 26,147 cancer cases and 26,072 controls. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to address pleiotropy. Results: Genetically predicted LSI was associated with increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.18 per SD, 95% CI: 1.07–1.30, P = 0.11 × 10−2), but there was no evidence of association for genetically predicted CPD (OR 1.02, 95% CI: 0.78–1.19, P = 0.85). The sensitivity analyses yielded similar results and showed no strong evidence of pleiotropic effect. Conclusions: Our MR study provides supportive evidence for a potential causal association with breast cancer risk for lifetime smoking exposure but not cigarettes per day among smokers.
Abstract Background: The rarity of mutations in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM make it difficult to estimate precisely associated cancer risks. Population-based family studies have provided evidence that at least some of these mutations are associated with breast cancer risk as high as those associated with rare BRCA2 mutations. We aimed to estimate the relative risks associated with specific rare variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM via a multicentre case-control study. Methods: We genotyped 10 rare mutations using the custom iCOGS array: PALB2 c.1592delT, c.2816T>G and c.3113G>A, CHEK2 c.349A>G, c.538C>T, c.715G>A, c.1036C>T, c.1312G>T, and c.1343T>G and ATM c.7271T>G. We assessed associations with breast cancer risk (42 671 cases and 42 164 controls), as well as prostate (22 301 cases and 22 320 controls) and ovarian (14 542 cases and 23 491 controls) cancer risk, for each variant. Results: For European women, strong evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for PALB2 c.1592delT OR 3.44 (95% CI 1.39 to 8.52, p = 7.1 × 10−5), PALB2 c.3113G>A OR 4.21 (95% CI 1.84 to 9.60, p = 6.9 × 10−8) and ATM c.7271T>G OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.42 to 85.7, p = 0.0012). We also found evidence of association with breast cancer risk for three variants in CHEK2, c.349A>G OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.29 to 3.95), c.1036C>T OR 5.06 (95% CI 1.09 to 23.5) and c.538C>T OR 1.33 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.67) (p ≤ 0.017). Evidence for prostate cancer risk was observed for CHEK2 c.1343T>G OR 3.03 (95% CI 1.53 to 6.03, p = 0.0006) for African men and CHEK2 c.1312G>T OR 2.21 (95% CI 1.06 to 4.63, p = 0.030) for European men. No evidence of association with ovarian cancer was found for any of these variants. Conclusions: This report adds to accumulating evidence that at least some variants in these genes are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer that is clinically important.
Abstract Severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) remain one of the leading causes of mortality around the world in all age groups. There is large global variation in epidemiology, clinical management and outcomes, including mortality. We performed a short period observational data collection in critical care units distributed globally during regional peak SARI seasons from 1 January 2016 until 31 August 2017, using standardised data collection tools. Data were collected for 1 week on all admitted patients who met the inclusion criteria for SARI, with follow-up to hospital discharge. Proportions of patients across regions were compared for microbiology, management strategies and outcomes. Regions were divided geographically and economically according to World Bank definitions. Data were collected for 682 patients from 95 hospitals and 23 countries. The overall mortality was 9.5%. Of the patients, 21.7% were children, with case fatality proportions of 1% for those less than 5 years. The highest mortality was in those above 60 years, at 18.6%. Case fatality varied by region: East Asia and Pacific 10.2% (21 of 206), Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3% (8 of 188), South Asia 0% (0 of 35), North America 13.6% (25 of 184), and Europe and Central Asia 14.3% (9 of 63). Mortality in low-income and low-middle-income countries combined was 4% as compared with 14% in high-income countries. Organ dysfunction scores calculated on presentation in 560 patients where full data were available revealed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores on presentation were significantly associated with mortality and hospital length of stay. Patients in East Asia and Pacific (48%) and North America (24%) had the highest SOFA scores of >12. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that initial SOFA score and age were independent predictors of hospital survival. There was variability across regions and income groupings for the critical care management and outcomes of SARI. Intensive care unit-specific factors, geography and management features were less reliable than baseline severity for predicting ultimate outcome. These findings may help in planning future outbreak severity assessments, but more globally representative data are required.
Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with increased risk of pregnancy complications and adverse perinatal outcomes. GDM often reoccurs and is associated with increased risk of subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2D). To improve our understanding of the aetiological factors and molecular processes driving the occurrence of GDM, including the extent to which these overlap with T2D pathophysiology, the GENetics of Diabetes In Pregnancy Consortium assembled genome-wide association studies of diverse ancestry in a total of 5485 women with GDM and 347 856 without GDM. Through multi-ancestry meta-analysis, we identified five loci with genome-wide significant association (P < 5 × 10-8) with GDM, mapping to/near MTNR1B (P = 4.3 × 10-54), TCF7L2 (P = 4.0 × 10-16), CDKAL1 (P = 1.6 × 10-14), CDKN2A-CDKN2B (P = 4.1 × 10-9) and HKDC1 (P = 2.9 × 10-8). Multiple lines of evidence pointed to the shared pathophysiology of GDM and T2D: (i) four of the five GDM loci (not HKDC1) have been previously reported at genome-wide significance for T2D; (ii) significant enrichment for associations with GDM at previously reported T2D loci; (iii) strong genetic correlation between GDM and T2D and (iv) enrichment of GDM associations mapping to genomic annotations in diabetes-relevant tissues and transcription factor binding sites. Mendelian randomization analyses demonstrated significant causal association (5% false discovery rate) of higher body mass index on increased GDM risk. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that GDM and T2D are part of the same underlying pathology but that, as exemplified by the HKDC1 locus, there are genetic determinants of GDM that are specific to glucose regulation in pregnancy.
Abstract Quantifying the genetic correlation between cancers can provide important insights into the mechanisms driving cancer etiology. Using genome-wide association study summary statistics across six cancer types based on a total of 296,215 cases and 301,319 controls of European ancestry, here we estimate the pair-wise genetic correlations between breast, colorectal, head/neck, lung, ovary and prostate cancer, and between cancers and 38 other diseases. We observed statistically significant genetic correlations between lung and head/neck cancer (rg = 0.57, p = 4.6 × 10−8), breast and ovarian cancer (rg = 0.24, p = 7 × 10−5), breast and lung cancer (rg = 0.18, p =1.5 × 10−6) and breast and colorectal cancer (rg = 0.15, p = 1.1 × 10−4). We also found that multiple cancers are genetically correlated with non-cancer traits including smoking, psychiatric diseases and metabolic characteristics. Functional enrichment analysis revealed a significant excess contribution of conserved and regulatory regions to cancer heritability. Our comprehensive analysis of cross-cancer heritability suggests that solid tumors arising across tissues share in part a common germline genetic basis.
Abstract Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 170 breast cancer susceptibility loci. Here we hypothesize that some risk-associated variants might act in non-breast tissues, specifically adipose tissue and immune cells from blood and spleen. Using expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) reported in these tissues, we identify 26 previously unreported, likely target genes of overall breast cancer risk variants, and 17 for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer, several with a known immune function. We determine the directional effect of gene expression on disease risk measured based on single and multiple eQTL. In addition, using a gene-based test of association that considers eQTL from multiple tissues, we identify seven (and four) regions with variants associated with overall (and ER-negative) breast cancer risk, which were not reported in previous GWAS. Further investigation of the function of the implicated genes in breast and immune cells may provide insights into the etiology of breast cancer.
Abstract Breast cancer metastasis accounts for most of the deaths from breast cancer. Identification of germline variants associated with survival in aggressive types of breast cancer may inform understanding of breast cancer progression and assist treatment. In this analysis, we studied the associations between germline variants and breast cancer survival for patients with distant metastases at primary breast cancer diagnosis. We used data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) including 1062 women of European ancestry with metastatic breast cancer, 606 of whom died of breast cancer. We identified two germline variants on chromosome 1, rs138569520 and rs146023652, significantly associated with breast cancer-specific survival (P = 3.19 × 10−8 and 4.42 × 10−8). In silico analysis suggested a potential regulatory effect of the variants on the nearby target genes SDE2 and H3F3A. However, the variants showed no evidence of association in a smaller replication dataset. The validation dataset was obtained from the SNPs to Risk of Metastasis (StoRM) study and included 293 patients with metastatic primary breast cancer at diagnosis. Ultimately, larger replication studies are needed to confirm the identified associations.
Context. We present an extensive study of the BL Lac object Mrk 501 based on a data set collected during the multi-instrument campaign spanning from 2009 March 15 to 2009 August 1, which includes, among other instruments, MAGIC, VERITAS, Whipple 10 m, and Fermi-LAT to cover the γ-ray range from 0.1 GeV to 20 TeV; RXTE and Swift to cover wavelengths from UV tohard X-rays; and GASP-WEBT, which provides coverage of radio and optical wavelengths. Optical polarization measurements were provided for a fraction of the campaign by the Steward and St. Petersburg observatories. We evaluate the variability of the source and interband correlations, the γ-ray flaring activity occurring in May 2009, and interpret the results within two synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) scenarios. Aims. The multiband variability observed during the full campaign is addressed in terms of the fractional variability, and the possible correlations are studied by calculating the discrete correlation function for each pair of energy bands where the significance was evaluated with dedicated Monte Carlo simulations. The space of SSC model parameters is probed following a dedicated grid-scan strategy, allowing for a wide range of models to be tested and offering a study of the degeneracy of model-to-data agreement in the individual model parameters, hence providing a less biased interpretation than the "single-curve SSC model adjustment" typically reported in the literature. Methods. We find an increase in the fractional variability with energy, while no significant interband correlations of flux changes are found on the basis of the acquired data set. The SSC model grid-scan shows that the flaring activity around May 22 cannot be modeled adequately with a one-zone SSC scenario (using an electron energy distribution with two breaks), while it can be suitably described within a two (independent) zone SSC scenario. Here, one zone is responsible for the quiescent emission from the averaged 4.5-month observing period, while the other one, which is spatially separated from the first, dominates the flaring emission occurring at X-rays and very-high-energy (>100 GeV, VHE) γ rays. The flaring activity from May 1, which coincides with a rotation of the electric vector polarization angle (EVPA), cannot be satisfactorily reproduced by either a one-zone or a two-independent-zone SSC model, yet this is partially affected by the lack of strictly simultaneous observations and the presence of large flux changes on sub-hour timescales (detected at VHE γ rays). Results. The higher variability in the VHE emission and lack of correlation with the X-ray emission indicate that, at least during the 4.5-month observing campaign in 2009, the highest energy (and most variable) electrons that are responsible for the VHE γ rays do not make a dominant contribution to the ~1 keV emission. Alternatively, there could be a very variable component contributing to the VHE γ-ray emission in addition to that coming from the SSC scenario. The studies with our dedicated SSC grid-scan show that there is some degeneracy in both the one-zone and the two-zone SSC scenarios probed, with several combinations of model parameters yielding a similar model-to-data agreement, and some parameters better constrained than others. The observed γ-ray flaring activity, with the EVPA rotation coincident with the first γ-ray flare, resembles those reported previously for low frequency peaked blazars, hence suggesting that there are many similarities in the flaring mechanisms of blazars with different jet properties.
The 2014-2016 JET results are reviewed in the light of their significance for optimising the ITER research plan for the active and non-active operation. More than 60 h of plasma operation with ITER first wall materials successfully took place since its installation in 2011. New multi-machine scaling of the type I-ELM divertor energy flux density to ITER is supported by first principle modelling. ITER relevant disruption experiments and first principle modelling are reported with a set of three disruption mitigation valves mimicking the ITER setup. Insights of the L-H power threshold in Deuterium and Hydrogen are given, stressing the importance of the magnetic configurations and the recent measurements of fine-scale structures in the edge radial electric. Dimensionless scans of the core and pedestal confinement provide new information to elucidate the importance of the first wall material on the fusion performance. H-mode plasmas at ITER triangularity (H = 1 at β N ∼ 1.8 and n/n GW ∼ 0.6) have been sustained at 2 MA during 5 s. The ITER neutronics codes have been validated on high performance experiments. Prospects for the coming D-T campaign and 14 MeV neutron calibration strategy are reviewed.