Abstract

Aims: There are only a few studies on novel biomarkers for incident heart failure (HF). We investigated the association of multiple circulating biomarkers with incident HF in a large prospective population‐based study.

Methods and results: Conventional risk factors and inflammatory biomarkers were measured, and systemic metabolic measures determined by a high‐throughput serum nuclear magnetic resonance platform in a population‐based Metabolic Syndrome in Men study including 10 106 Finnish men without HF at baseline. During an 8.8 year follow‐up, 172 (1.7%) participants developed HF. Adiponectin, high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein (hs‐CRP), glycoprotein acetyls, alanine, phenylalanine, glycerol, and pyruvate were associated with incident HF in unadjusted Cox regression analyses, in addition to age, systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose and insulin, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER). After adjustment for age, BMI, diabetes, and statin medication, only adiponectin [hazard ratio (HR) 1.18 (1.10–1.26, P = 4.1E‐08)], pyruvate [HR 1.38 (1.28–1.50, P = 8.2E‐05)], and UAER [HR 1.15 (1.11—1.18, P = 7.8E‐06)] remained statistically significant. In principal component analysis of biomarkers associated with HF in univariate Cox regression analysis, we identified six components, explaining 61.7% of total variance. Four principal components, one with significant loadings on waist, BMI, fasting plasma insulin, interleukin 1 receptor antagonist, and hs‐CRP; another on pyruvate, glycoprotein acetyls, alanine, glycerol and HbA1c; third on age and glomerular filtration rate; and fourth on systolic blood pressure, UAER, and adiponectin, significantly associated with incident HF.

Conclusions: Several novel metabolic and inflammatory biomarkers were associated with incident HF, suggesting early activation of respective pathways in the pathogenesis of HF.